USA
Nithya Raman Leads Karen Bass in New Los Angeles Mayoral Poll, But One-Third of Voters Remain Undecided: Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman has opened an 11-point lead over incumbent Mayor Karen Bass in a new poll of likely voters, while a significant share of the electorate remains undecided ahead of the November 3 mayoral election.
The Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies/L.A. Times poll found Raman with 39% support, compared with 28% for Bass, while 33% of likely voters said they were undecided. The survey was conducted online September 15–20 among 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters and has a margin of error of approximately three percentage points.
The result marks a significant change from the June 2 nonpartisan primary, when Bass finished first with 34% of the vote and Raman placed second with 29%. Raman had also trailed Bass in most polling during the primary campaign.
The large undecided bloc is one of the most notable features of the latest survey. According to the poll, many voters who supported former candidate Spencer Pratt in the June primary have yet to choose between Raman and Bass. Pratt received about 26% of the primary vote, and 63% of his former supporters surveyed said they remained undecided. Among Pratt voters who had made a choice, 22% backed Bass and 16% backed Raman.
The poll also showed substantial differences by age. Raman held her largest lead among younger voters, receiving support from 66% of likely voters ages 18 to 29 compared with 4% for Bass. Among voters ages 30 to 39, Raman led 64% to 12%, while among those ages 40 to 49 she led 50% to 18%. The contest was considerably closer among voters ages 50 to 64, where Raman had 35% and Bass 33%. Bass led among voters 65 and older, 41% to 21%.
Geographically, Raman was ahead in most areas surveyed. In the San Fernando Valley, she led Bass 34% to 26%, although 40% of voters there remained undecided. On the Westside, Raman held a narrow 35% to 34% advantage. Bass led in South Los Angeles and the Harbor region, 37% to 34%.
The survey also measured views of the two candidates. Bass had a 63% unfavorable rating, with 28% viewing her favorably and 9% offering no opinion. Raman had a 40% favorable rating, compared with 39% unfavorable and 21% with no opinion.
Issues identified as important to likely voters included city infrastructure, homelessness and moving people indoors, crime and public safety, and affordable housing. The poll also found that voters expressed negative views about Bass’ handling of the 2025 Palisades fire, although those findings measure voter perceptions rather than an independent assessment of the city’s response.
Bass’ campaign disputed the Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times findings, describing the survey as an outlier and raising concerns about its online methodology. The campaign argued that online polling can undercount some groups, including working-class voters, seniors and non-English-speaking communities. Poll director Mark DiCamillo defended the methodology and pointed to the poll’s established sampling and weighting procedures.
Other recent surveys have produced different margins. An early September poll commissioned by Raman’s campaign showed her leading Bass 44% to 39%, with 17% undecided, while an August poll commissioned by an independent expenditure group supporting Bass showed Bass ahead 41% to 35%, with 24% undecided. These surveys were commissioned by groups aligned with the respective campaigns and should therefore be considered separately from the Berkeley IGS/L.A. Times poll.
With mail-in ballots scheduled to begin going out October 1 and Election Day set for November 3, the latest numbers provide a snapshot of the race rather than a forecast of the result. The 33% undecided figure leaves a substantial portion of the electorate yet to select a candidate.
The Los Angeles mayoral contest between Raman and Bass will therefore continue to be shaped by how the candidates engage undecided voters in the weeks leading up to the election.
